According to the report, Ruto currently controls 24 counties, representing about 9.22 million registered voters, while the opposition holds sway in 15 counties with 8.43 million voters.
Another eight counties, accounting for 4.44 million voters, are emerging as crucial battlegrounds that could influence the outcome of the race.
Observers caution that these figures may change as the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) aims to register 6.8 million new voters.
The rising political assertiveness of the youth is also expected to affect traditional voting patterns, making some regions more competitive than in past elections.
Ruto is projected to maintain dominance in the Rift Valley, which has historically been his stronghold. North and South Rift counties alone account for over two million voters.
He is also targeting Raila Odinga’s traditional bases along the Coast and in Western Kenya, leveraging the influence of senior government officials in key counties such as Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, and Kakamega.
The opposition relies heavily on support from Gusii, Ukambani, and Mt Kenya. Mt Kenya, with more than 5.7 million voters, remains pivotal, though internal divisions and competing leadership could weaken the opposition’s hold.
Eight counties—Nairobi, Kajiado, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Isiolo, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, and Lamu—are expected to be fiercely contested.
Nairobi, Kenya’s most cosmopolitan county with over 2.4 million voters, continues to be a critical prize, traditionally leaning toward the opposition but remaining unpredictable.
The Star concludes that President Ruto enters the 2027 race with a strong numerical advantage, but the election is likely to remain competitive in several key regions.
