According to Mizani Africa's survey released Wednesday, Ruto leads the field but remains nearly four percentage points short of the 50% plus one vote threshold mandated by Kenya's 2010 Constitution to avoid a second round of voting.
The constitutional provision, designed to ensure broad national legitimacy, requires a presidential candidate to secure an absolute majority of valid votes cast.
Failure to meet this threshold triggers a runoff between the top two candidates within 30 days.
Opposition leader Kalonzo Musyoka trails at 18.5%, while Fred Matiang'i commands 15.9%.
Combined, the two opposition figures account for 34.4% of voter preference, highlighting the mathematical possibility of a competitive runoff should they consolidate support behind a single candidate.
The 10.1% undecided voters emerge as a critical battleground. If Ruto can capture a significant portion of this bloc, he could surpass the constitutional threshold and secure victory in the first round.
Conversely, if undecided voters swing predominantly toward the opposition, they could force a second round of voting.
Kenya has never experienced a presidential runoff since the 2010 Constitution was enacted, though the 2017 election came close before being annulled by the Supreme Court on procedural grounds and subsequently re-run.
The poll results suggest Ruto's campaign will likely intensify efforts to build broader ethnic and regional coalitions to secure the crucial 50% plus one figure.
Meanwhile, opposition leaders face mounting pressure to unite behind a single candidate to maximize their chances in either a first round or potential runoff scenario.
With other candidates including Rigathi Gachagua at 6.1% and Martha Karua at 0.7% polling in single digits, the presidential race appears increasingly binary between the incumbent and a potentially unified opposition front.