By preparing a regional political vehicle, Joho appears to be constructing a political failsafe designed to secure the Coast’s relevance at the national table, regardless of ODM’s future strategic decisions.
This calculated move suggests that Joho has drawn lessons from past political realignments and is determined not to tie his future to a party that could compromise Coastal interests in favor of Nyanza-centric or Nairobi-based coalitions.
His growing cooperation with William Ruto goes beyond his appointment as Cabinet Secretary for Mining and the Blue Economy and reflects a deeper strategic realignment.
Joho has openly indicated his willingness to support President Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027, provided it creates a clear pathway for his own presidential ambitions in 2032.
This emerging quid pro quo offers Ruto an unprecedented opportunity to penetrate a region that has historically been an opposition stronghold, potentially transforming the Coast into a pro-government zone.
For ODM, the implications are profound. The possible defection or realignment of Joho, alongside other influential Coastal leaders such as Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, threatens to weaken the party’s grip on one of its most loyal regions outside Nyanza.
ODM’s leadership now faces the delicate task of maintaining an independent identity while key figures actively collaborate with a government they once opposed.
Meanwhile, voters at the Coast are increasingly prioritizing performance over party loyalty.
Should Joho leverage his Cabinet position to deliver jobs, infrastructure, and tangible economic gains, public support may follow him into a new political formation without resistance.
As development replaces ideology as the dominant political currency, President Ruto’s path to winning the Coast in 2027 appears significantly smoother.
Ultimately, Joho’s Plan B secures his status as a central power broker.
By holding the keys to the Coastal vote, he positions himself as an indispensable ally to any national leadership, ensuring that as 2027 approaches, the “Sultan” remains firmly in control of the political game.