Recent figures show over 12,000 individuals registered as aspirants for various seats, with the party hosting a large gathering at State House to engage them. While UDA officials celebrated the high numbers as evidence of strong grassroots enthusiasm and unity, analysis of the breakdown reveals a troubling pattern.
Nairobi contributed the largest share of aspirants, while counties in traditional strongholds particularly in Mt Kenya showed notably fewer applications, especially for high-profile positions like governorships where some incumbents attracted no challengers on the UDA ticket.
The Standard newspaper described this as an "illusion of numbers," arguing that the impressive total masks a damning truth about the party's soft underbelly.
Critics point out that the concentration in certain urban or non-core areas suggests limited penetration in key voting blocs that were crucial in the 2022 election.
Reports indicate fewer bigwigs from Mt Kenya aligning with UDA compared to previous cycles, raising questions about eroding loyalty in the region despite the president's origins there.
This imbalance comes amid broader political realignments, with some politicians from opposition strongholds showing interest in UDA tickets, but not enough to offset apparent declines elsewhere.
The revelation has sparked debate on whether the party's mobilization strategy relies too heavily on quantity over balanced geographical strength, potentially complicating Ruto's re-election path.
Party leaders have vowed fair primaries and continued outreach, but the exposed disparities could fuel internal tensions and opposition narratives ahead of 2027. As aspirants prepare for nominations, the uneven distribution underscores the need for UDA to address regional gaps to maintain its competitive edge in the national race.