With less than a month remaining before the Emurua Dikirr by-election scheduled for May 15, 2026, a recent opinion poll indicates that DCP candidate Vincent Rotich is currently leading the race by a notable margin.
The survey, conducted by Politrack and based on responses from 3,426 participants, places Rotich firmly ahead of his competitors with 35.5 percent support.
Trailing behind in second place is UDA candidate David Keter Dollar, who has secured 21.1 percent of voter preference.
NVP’s Wakili Gideon K. ranks third with 18.6 percent, while PNU candidate Desma Cherono follows closely with 16.8 percent.
The poll also reveals that 5.1 percent of respondents remain undecided, suggesting that a portion of the electorate could still influence the final outcome. Additionally, 2.9 percent indicated support for other candidates outside the four leading contenders.
The findings highlight a challenging path ahead for the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), as its candidate works to close a considerable gap with the frontrunner.
Rotich’s current lead suggests strong early momentum, positioning him as the candidate to beat as the election date approaches.
Political analysts note that while opinion polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiment, they do not guarantee final results. Campaign dynamics, voter turnout, and last-minute shifts in public opinion can significantly alter the outcome.
For UDA’s David Keter Dollar, the coming weeks present a critical opportunity to intensify outreach efforts and potentially narrow the margin.
Similarly, the other candidates remain within striking distance, particularly if undecided voters begin to align with alternative options.
The relatively close percentages among the second, third, and fourth candidates indicate that competition for the remaining support base will be intense.
As May 15 draws nearer, campaign activities are expected to increase across the constituency. Candidates will likely focus on grassroots engagement, policy messaging, and coalition-building in an effort to secure additional votes.
Overall, the race remains competitive despite Rotich’s early lead, and the final outcome will depend on how effectively each candidate mobilizes support in the remaining campaign period.