His remarks, posted on his X account, have drawn wide attention at a time when the country’s political mood is beginning to take shape.
In his assessment, William Ruto currently holds a clear lead. Abdullahi places the president at about 42 percent support if the election were held now, a figure that reflects both incumbency and a solid political network across several regions.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is ranked second with an estimated 15 percent. Close behind is Martha Karua, leader of the People’s Liberation Party, who is placed at around 12 percent.
The gap between Ruto and his closest challengers stands out, suggesting that any serious contest would require a major shift in alliances or public sentiment.
Abdullahi also referenced other prominent figures, including Kalonzo Musyoka, Fred Matiang’i, Eugene Wamalwa, and David Maraga.
In his view, these leaders currently command less than 10 percent support each, pointing to the difficulty of building a nationwide base this early in the cycle.
He described his projection as a first poll rather than a scientific survey, but it has still sparked lively reactions.
Some observers see the numbers as a fair reflection of the current political ground, especially given Ruto’s position in office. Others argue that it is too early to attach weight to such estimates, noting that Kenya’s politics can shift quickly.
With leaders already making moves and testing possible alliances, the conversation around 2027 is gaining momentum.
While Abdullahi’s figures are only a snapshot, they have added a new layer to the national discussion on what lies ahead.